National Intelligence Council's "Global Trends" Reports (US) and Reports Inspired by "Global Trends"
“What will the world be like in 2035? The forecast seems dire. In the four years since ‘Global Trends 2030’ was published, the biggest change in the world is the increased risk of major conflict. In 2012, a large-scale US/NATO conflict with Russia or China was close to unthinkable. Now, the post-Cold War security order has broken down, and the consequences are immense, potentially threatening globalization. The report projects that, given the broader geopolitical and technological trends, in the best case, the world is looking at multipolarity with limited multilateralism. There would still exist some cooperation where there was strong interest among the great powers. However, fragmentation could easily slide into open conflict. In that worst case, the multipolarity would evolve into another bipolarity—with China, Russia, and their partners pitted against the United States, Europe, Japan, and other allies. In that scenario, conflict would be almost inevitable. Authored by Dr. Mathew J. Burrows, director of the Strategic Foresight Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and the principal drafter the highly influential National Intelligence Council publication ‘Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,’ the report emphasizes that world leaders and policymakers must understand global risks and take imminent actions to make sure that the world of 2035 is a safe and prosperous one.”
“‘Global Trends 2030’ is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. In depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of this report. Visit this page for continuing coverage of ‘Global Trends 2030.’”
"'Global Trends 2025' is the fourth installment in the National Intelligence Council-led effort to identify key drivers and developments likely to shape world events a decade or more in the future. Both the product and the process used to produce it benefited from lessons learned in previous iterations. Each edition of 'Global Trends' has tapped larger and more diverse communities of experts."
Most Recent Annual Forecasts Produced By Think Tanks
“As the new administration and Congress are settling in, one of their early priorities must be national defense. One of the key resources available for policymakers is The Heritage Foundation’s ‘Index of U.S. Military Strength,’ containing the latest assessments of global threats and the U.S. military. The ‘2017 Index of U.S. Military Strength’ is Heritage’s third annual assessment of the United States Armed Forces’ ability to provide for the common defense. As with the first two editions, the 2017 Index continues to analyze the U.S. military’s status in capacity, capability, and readiness. The publication looks at evolving threats and opportunities around the globe and how they contribute to and influence this ability and discusses how and why elements of national security grew better or worse over the past year. Additionally, the ‘2017 Index of U.S. Military Strength’ provides focused analysis of specific security themes such as the role of alliances in America’s efforts to protect its interests around the globe, an overview of operational concepts and their contributions to successful military planning, a discussion of cybersecurity and its broader consequences for national security policy, and an exploration of the military strategy and strategic thinking.”
“The Preventive Priorities Survey seeks to evaluate conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating and their impact on U.S. national interests. This fall, CFR's Center for Preventive Action (CPA) solicited suggestions from the general public on potential conflicts that could erupt or escalate next year. CPA narrowed down the nearly one thousand suggestions to thirty, and invited government officials, academics, and foreign policy experts to rank them. CPA then categorized the scenarios into three tiers, in order of priority for U.S. leaders—high, moderate, and low."
"War on the Rocks" Podcasts
Future of Warfare Initiative from the Center for a New American Security
The Future of Warfare Initiative will focus on publishing groundbreaking research and growing the community of interest on these issues. The Initiative aims to deliver practical, actionable recommendations to policy makers today to help prepare the U.S. military for the challenges and opportunities these technologies will present in the years to come."
Futures Weapons: New and Disruptive Technology
“‘The Drone Revolution Revisited’ offers a guide to the evolving ecosystem of unmanned systems technologies as it stands in 2016, and reflects the ways in which the technology has evolved and matured over the past seven years since the publication of ‘Wired for War’ [by Peter W. Singer]. The research produced by our students served as the basis for Chapter I, which consists of portraits of 30 systems that Singer presented as the harbingers of the drone revolution. Some of the systems—for example, the U.S. Navy’s MQ-8 Fire Scout—have grown into large multi-billion dollar military acquisition programs, while other systems that seemed promising, such as the Boston Dynamics BigDog or the Foster Miller SWORDS, have fizzled. Of these 30 systems, 13 are active or deployed, three remain in development, and 14 have been cancelled or are inactive. By revisiting these systems, we have sought to update, expand upon, and interrogate Singer’s 2009 portrait of the drone revolution."
Futures Weapons: Nuclear Weapons
Futures Weapons: Autonomous Weapons Systems ("Ethical Autonomy Project" from the Center for a New American Security)
Futures Weapons: Autonomous Weapons Systems (Research Articles)
Future Weapons: Autonomous Weapons Systems (Books)
Future Weapons: Autonomous Weapons Systems (Campaign to Stop Killer Robots)
"Formed by the following non-governmental organizations (NGOs) at a meeting in New York on 19 October 2012 and launched in London in April 2013, the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots is an international coalition working to preemptively ban fully autonomous weapons."
Research Articles: Maritime Drones / Autonomous Undersea Vehicles
Reports: Maritime Drones / Autonomous Undersea Vehicles
Research Articles: Hypersonic Weapons
Research Articles: Aerial Drones / Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
"The Military Profession in the Future" by Don Snider, a lecture at the U.S. Naval War College's Ethics 2016 Symposium
USAWC Futures Seminar
USAWC Library Bibliographies
These bibliographies contain books, reports, journal articles, multimedia, and internet resources.
Please note that a server change in 2014 has disrupted many of the active links in the bibliographies built before this event. Academic articles will need to be searched for in the library databases. Please contact the Reference Desk for assistance.
Military Policy Awareness Links [MiPALs] from MERLN [Military Education Research Library Network] at the National Defense University
Research guides featuring access to current U.S. policy statements accompanied by broad, objective, and comprehensive analysis from a global network of think tanks and research institutes.
DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) News
"With more than 200 different programs across the spectrum of science and engineering, DARPA frequently has news to share. We regularly announce the launch of new programs, contract awards and -- most exciting -- compelling results from our ongoing research."
Armed With Science
“'Armed with Science' is a daily blog site for the Department of Defense that incorporates print, video, and social media assets over 50 scientific organizations across the Federal government. These efforts were recognized with the 2009 APEX Award for Publication Excellence and the PR News Nonprofit PR Award."
Research Articles: Military Innovation
General Futures Research
Note: This article is a response to Stephen Pinker's "Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined." (See below).
"Mr. Y is a pseudonym for CAPT Wayne Porter, USN and Col Mark "Puck" Mykleby, USMC who are actively serving military officers. The views expressed herein are their own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Marine Corps, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government."
Futures Technology: Nanotechnology (Reports)
Futures Technology: Nanotechnology (Research Articles)
Futures Weapons: Cybersecurity, Cyberwarfare, Quantum Computers, the Internet, and Neurotechnology
Research Articles: Anti-Access Area Denial
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