USAHEC: Futures: Forecasting

Suggested Search Terms

Truncated Terms: Anticipat* (Anticipating, Anticipation), Estimat* (Estimating, Estimation, Estimates), Projection* (Projection, Projections)

Search Phrases: "Horizon Scanning", "Statistical Forecasting", "Trends Forecasting", "Military Force Planning", "Threat Assessment", "Future Force Planning", "Emergent Trends", "Scenario Planning", "Defense Forecasting", "Future Operating Environment" (FOE),

Books

Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock
Call Number: Root Hall - CSL Textbooks JA74.5 .T38 2017
ISBN: 9780691175973
Publication Date: 2017
Future Smart by James Canton
Call Number: Root Hall - HD30.28 .C358 2016
ISBN: 9780306824418
Publication Date: 2016
Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy by Mark M. Lowenthal
Call Number: Root Hall - DNSS Textbooks - JK468.I6 L65 2022
ISBN: 9781071806371
Publication Date: 2022
Noise by Daniel Kahneman; Olivier Sibony; Cass R. Sunstein
Call Number: Root Hall - BF447 .K34 2021
ISBN: 9780316451406
Publication Date: 2021
Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock; Dan Gardner
Call Number: Root Hall - CSL Textbooks HB3730 .T47 2015
ISBN: 9780804136716
Publication Date: 2016
The Kill Chain by Christian Brose
Call Number: Root Hall - UA23 .B7838 2022
ISBN: 9780316533676
Publication Date: 2022
The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats - and Our Response - Will Change the World by Ian Bremmer
Call Number: Available via ILL request
ISBN: 9781982167509
Publication Date: 2022
The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver
Call Number: Root Hall - CB158 .S54 2012
ISBN: 9781594204111
Publication Date: 2012
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Call Number: PRINT: Textbooks - Course Reserves - BF441 .K34 2011, AUDIO: CD Stacks - BF441 .K342 2011
ISBN: 9780374533557
Publication Date: 2013

Articles, Papers, & Reports

"Analytics and Instincts: What 'Moneyball' Should Really Teach the Army About Data-Rich Decision-Making".
Chandler, Garrett. Modern War Institute (June 1, 2022).

"Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality". International Studies Quarterly (2021).
Forecasting Change in Military Technology
O'Hanlon, Michael E. Brookings Institute (September 2018).
"Handling and Mishandling Estimative Probability: Likelihood, Confidence, and the Search for Bin Laden". Intelligence and National Security (2014).

"Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions".
Mellers, Barbara et al. Perspectives on Psychological Science, Volume 10, Number 3 (May 2015): 267-281. (Available through Inter-Library Loan Request)